Tuesday, 1 September 2015

Another short selling victim

From Star biz 30 August 2015:

SELF-MADE bil­lion­aire Goh Peng Ooi was in the news in the past week for the wrong rea­sons. Goh and his Sin­ga­pore Stock Ex­change-listed soft­ware so­lu­tions com­pany, Sil­ver­lake Axis Ltd, were ac­cused of shady deals that in­flated the lat­ter’s earn­ings in a re­port that was re­leased on the night of Aug 20.

By mid­day of the fol­low­ing day, the report, titled “The Unbelievable Financial Alchemy of Silverlake Axis”, had done its damage. According to the Singapore Business Times, the report had made the rounds of the broking houses and caused the company’s share price to fall as much as 27% in intraday trade on Aug 21. It prompted the stock exchange to query the company over the unusual share price movement.

Silverlake Axis then asked for a halt on trading of its shares. Last Tues­day, fol­low­ing the lifting of the two day trading halt, its share price tumbled further and closed at the lowest since late February 2013. Although the share price has since recovered, it closed at 56 Singapore cents yesterday, still below the 63.5 Sin­ga­pore cents it was trading at on Aug 21 prior to the halt.

The 42-page report, authored by “razor99”, brazenly admits that it “may have short positions in Silverlake Axis” and could realise gains in the event that the share price decreases. It did not help that the company took some time to respond to the report’s allegations, with a statement from group managing director Kwong Yong Sin available only at midnight of Aug 25.

Goh, 61, the founder and executive chairman of Silverlake Axis, has learned a lesson from this episode. He is taking the criticism in his stride and soldiering on, in research, where his passion and interest lies.

“My character is more academic and I don’t care what others think about me. But I do take people’s criticism as an education process,” he says.

And it looks like the market is giving him the benefit of the doubt. On Aug 27, RHB Research upgraded the stock to a “buy” from “neutral” previously, with a target price of 58 Singapore cents. UOB Kay Hian maintained a “hold” call, with a target price of 66 Singapore cents. For the record, the razor99 report has a 29 Singapore cent target price on the stock.

Goh pointed out that the lines of responsibility are clear within the company as the board has control over its running while he concentrates on research. He feels that it is his responsibility as a supplier and majority shareholder to develop software.

Meeting him earlier in the year, one can understand his interest in research, especially in game theory. The well-read Goh, who has a penchant for spewing a bewildering array of mathematical formulae in a conversation, is convinced that the future lies in game theory and its use to predict changes.

He jokes often about how his lieutenants prefer for him not to meet clients or fund managers, for a conversation with him can be “torturous”, as he told StarBiz Week back in April. Goh says game theory can be used to predict the changes that can affect businesses.

His preoccupation with research has resulted in a theory which he calls the Goh Mathematical Intelligence game theory or Goh-MI for short. It is not out of hubris that the self deprecating lad from a kampung that is now part of Butterworth names the theory after himself. He says that this theory goes beyond the Nash Equilbrium, a theory that itself goes beyond the zero-sum game of game theory. A lot of other top mathematicians are working on the idea.

For the man until recently, was largely unknown to the public, as he does not appear in the society pages. But Goh himself notes that after Forbes named him as the ninth richest Malaysian this year with a net worth of US$1.6bil (RM6.7bil), the media started to knock on his door to ask for interviews. He owns 66.56% stake in Silverlake Axis through Intelligentsia Holding Ltd and is known as Malaysia’s first tech billionaire.

Still, Goh says the company will hire a third-party consultant and engage with Singaporean stock exchange regulators to explain the company’s side of the story. To assuage the concerns of shareholders, the company has appointed Deloitte Singapore on Aug 25 to undertake an independent review of the allegations made by “razor99”. The findings and conclusions will be published in due course.

Goh says “everything is in order” despite the extensive related-party transactions that the report accuses him, through private companies known collectively as the Silverlake group, and Silverlake Axis of conducting, which lacked clarity. The report says there are numerous red flags and ample evidence suggesting that Goh has used these related-party transactions to inflate Silverlake Axis’ reported results.

However, Goh has refuted the allegations by saying that while the structure of the private companies was complex, due to the nature of its business and the history behind it, all rules and regulations have been followed and that the listed Silverlake Axis has made proper disclosure in the corporate exercises it undertakes.

He adds that as a MSC status company, Silverlake Axis has to
ensure that its accounts are proper and in order as failure to do so will incur a big penalty such as the loss of tax breaks as a MSC status company.

Goh says most of the profit is paid out as dividend. He says if the company posts just a paper or inflated profit, it will not be able to pay out such a quantum of dividends in cash.

On Monday, the company released its fourth quarter ended June 30 and full year earnings. Compared to the previous corresponding quarter, net profit was flat while revenue for the quarter slipped owing to lower contributions from software licensing, the sale of software and hardware products, and credit and cards processing.

Friday, 28 August 2015

True value pre­vails in the longer term

Finally the truth value prevailed for another victim of the SGX market...


"The com­pany which sup­plies food and in­dus­trial raw ma­te­ri­als to over 13,800 cus­tomers glob­ally was tar­geted by Muddy Waters Re­search which had al­leged ac­count­ing mis­con­duct in the firm via a 133-page re­port back in Novem­ber 2012."

"Muddy Waters, set up by prom­i­nent US short seller Car­son Block, who found fame from his al­le­ga­tions of fraud­u­lent ac­count­ing prac­tices at Chi­nese firms, had said in the re­port that Olam could po­ten­tially fail as a re­sult of its mis­con­duct but Olam had fought back say­ing that it will clear its name and hold Muddy Waters ac­count­able for its al­le­ga­tions."

"Look­ing at how Olam has per­formed, the only way to counter the short sell­ers is to see that true value pre­vails in the longer term."

Excerpt from Star Biz.

Victim of his meteoric rise


Focus Malaysia issue 143, 29 August 2015

ALMOST everyone in the local information technology (IT) circle speaks highly of Goh Peng Ooi, the founder and group executive chairman of Silverlake Axis Ltd. In fact, he is regarded as a torchbearer 
for the local IT industry where the number of homegrown software firms which have become successful internationally can be counted on the fingers of one hand. 

Goh is considered by many as Malaysia’s first tech billionaire, having started his career at IBM in the 1980s. Industry estimates Silverlake Axis provides financial software to about half the banks in South-
east Asia. Educated in Tokyo, he started off studying nuclear physics but later switched to electrical engineering.

Goh, 61, is listed in the Forbes Malaysia rich list with an estimated net worth of US$1.55 bil (RM6.5 bil). As of September last year, his wholly-owned company Intelligentsia Holding Ltd owned a 66.4% 
stake in Silverlake. Coupled with his immense wealth, some industry players say the release of the anonymous report “The Unbelievable Financial Alchemy of Silverlake Axis” may in fact be a personal attack on Goh. 

“Goh, being the poster boy of the industry, may be a victim of his success unfortunately,” says an IT official....

Silver opportunity – upgrade to BUY

RHB Research report published on 27 Aug 2015 recommended a BUY:

FY15 was disappointing and we lower our FY16F earnings by 6.7%, to
account for higher administration expenses and lower licensing and
project sales; management is also refuting all allegations and is hiring
Deloitte to undertake an independent review on Silverlake and related
private entities. Sentiments aside and solely based on valuations we
think the current price levels look attractive and upgrade to BUY based
on a conservative 14x FY16F P/E TP of SGD0.58.

* Disappointing FY15 (Jun). FY15 revenue and NPAT grew by 3% and
14% YoY to MYR337m and MYR282.7m respectively. Revenue growth
was lower mainly due to the smaller hardware sales as compared to
FY14. However, mainly due an increase in administrative expense and a
MYR19.2m accounting gain on dilution of interest in an associate in
China following its IPO, recurring NPAT only grew by 7% YoY.

* Engaging Deloitte to undertake an independent review. Management
has refuted all adverse allegations in a short-seller’s report, stating that
the claims were baseless and without merit. Silverlake Axis (Silverlake)
also reinforced the fact that these related party acquisitions have
benefited the company with net profit, cash flow, DPS and market cap
growth. Management is also engaging Deloitte Singapore to undertake
an independent review of the allegations concerning the related party
transactions and Silverlake-related private entities as well as the
associated profit margins referred in the report.

* Silver opportunity – upgrade to BUY. The share price has collapsed
by >50% in the last few weeks and we think that – solely based on
fundamentals with sentiments aside – this is an opportunity to
accumulate Silverlake’s shares at an attractive level. We have already
conservatively cut our FY16/FY17 licensing and project services sales to
MYR220m due to a lack of new contracts, resulting in our recurring
NPAT to only grow by 5.2% in FY16. However, at the current price
levels, the stock is only trading at 11.1x FY16 P/E coupled with a
potential >8% yield. Silverlake’s core banking solutions offerings can be
verified as they are currently being used by first-tier Singaporean,
Malaysian and Indonesian banks. As such, we upgrade our call to BUY
based on a conservative 14x FY16F P/E which results in a TP of
SGD0.58.

Wednesday, 26 August 2015

Noble saga = Silverlake saga?

A comment from http://www.sharejunction.com/

"It was previously posted that Noble saga = Silverlake saga. Just like to note that Noble is shorted by Muddywaters (an esteem short seller). Silverlake is shorted by razer99 who is a ? what / who / he   /she / dog / mouse / cat? Absolutely no idea.

Also shows how easy to create an id with the same name. And the impact of anonymous  report on a sell down market.

By the way, I am not disputing the claims and evidence shown in the report but at least have some accountability on the author' s part.

Even Amos Yee went to jail for posting his views and is still doing so to express his dis interest. By the way again, not supporting Amos but there is some truth to his insights."

Post from http://www.sharejunction.com/sharejunction/listMessage.htm?topicId=12627

Sil­ver­lake Seek­ing Le­gal Ad­vice On Libelous "Investing" Report

The Star, 27 Aug 2015

PETALING JAYA: Shares in Sin­ga­pore-listed Sil­ver­lake Axis Ltd tum­bled 17.5 Sin­ga­pore cents to 46 Sin­ga­pore cents, the com­pany’s low­est since Fe­bru­ary 2013, af­ter a two-day trad­ing halt as in­vestors re­mained con­cerned over al­le­ga­tions made by an anony­mous re­port re­leased last Thurs­day.

The soft­ware so­lu­tions provider noted that its share price had ex­pe­ri­enced a sig­nif­i­cant fluc­tu­a­tion on Aug 21, lead­ing to a query from the Sin­ga­pore Stock Ex­change and to the com­pany re­quest­ing a halt in the trad­ing of its shares. The pur­pose of the halt was to al­low the com­pany time to in­ves­ti­gate the mat­ter and pre­pare a re­sponse.

“The com­pany be­lieves this fluc­tu­a­tion is linked to a re­port en­ti­tled ‘ The Un­be­liev­able Fi­nan­cial Alchemy of Sil­ver­lake Axis’, which was dis­sem­i­nated on­line, on or about Aug 20, and which was sub­se­quently also picked up by and re­ported on in var­i­ous lo­cal news­pa­pers,” Sil­ver­lake group man­ag­ing di­rec­tor Kwong Yong Sin said in a state­ment dated Aug 25.

The com­pany as­sured its cus­tomers and busi­ness part­ners that the com­pany had, since its list­ingin 2003, “al­ways op­er­ated its busi­ness in a trans­par­ent man­ner andin full com­pli­ance with all ap­pli­ca­ble statu­tory and list­ing re­quire­ments”.

In the state­ment, Sil­ver­lake said that the thrust of the re­port con­cerned past re­lated-party trans­ac­tions en­tered into be­tween the group and pri­vate com­pa­nies (Sil­ver­lake Pri­vate En­ti­ties), con­trolled by the com­pany’s con­trol­ling share­holder, Goh Peng Ooi, in par­tic­u­lar, the group’s ac­qui­si­tion of Sil­ver lake Adap­tive Ap­pli­ca­tions & Con­tin­u­ous Im­prove­ment Ser­vices Ltd, go­ing as far back as 2006, as well as its ac­qui­si­tion of the struc­tured ser­vices busi­ness and the QR Group, in 2010, and goes on to al­lude to some al­leged im­pro­pri­ety or wrong­do­ing on the part of the com­pany and or Goh in con­nec­tion with these trans­ac­tions.

The com­pany opined that the au­thors of the re­port may have short po­si­tions in Sil­ver­lake and stood to re­alise gains in the event that the price of the stock de­creases.

“The board of di­rec­tors of the com­pany firstly note that the au­thor(s) of the re­port have cho­sen to con­ceal their iden­tity, whilsthav­ing no qualms about openlyre­veal­ing their real mo­ti­va­tion inis­su­ing the re­port, ie, by ex­presslyad­mit­ting that they may haveshort po­si­tions in Sil­ver­lake AxisLtd and stand to re­alise gains in the event that the price of the stock de­creases’,” Kwong said.

He said Sil­ver­lake’s board, in­clud­ing its in­de­pen­dent di­rec­tors, was unan­i­mously of the view that the ad­verse al­le­ga­tions in the re­port were com­pletely “base­less and with­out merit”.

“The board would also like to re­it­er­ate that, since its list­ing, the com­pany’s fi­nan­cial state­ments and ac­count­ing poli­cies have strictly fol­lowed and ad­hered to the Sin­ga­pore Fi­nan­cial Re­port­ing Stan­dards up to and in­clud­ing the year ended June 30, 2011, and sub­se­quently to the In­ter­na­tional 2 Fi­nan­cial Re­port­ing Stan­dards, and have been sub­ject to an­nual au­dits by rep­utable in­de­pen­dent au­di­tors, whose re­ports have been is­sued with­out any qual­i­fi­ca­tion,” it pointed out.

Con­cur­rently, Sil­ver­lake said it was seek­ing le­gal ad­vice and viewed the mat­ter se­ri­ously. It would be in­ves­ti­gat­ing the source of the re­port and take ac­tions nec­es­sary to pro­tect and de­fend its in­ter­ests.

The com­pany will pro­vide up­dates on this when ap­pro­pri­ate.

Tuesday, 25 August 2015

Foolish Investing Reports Aimed to Destruct Value Company

Excerpt from Motley Fool website: 
"Over the past few years, it seems that companies in Singapore’s stock market have been an attractive target for market participants who publish negative investing reports..."
"...Silverlake Axis, whose technological products, systems, and solutions serve many major financial institutions in the Southeast Asia region, is one of the most successful software companies that Malaysia has produced.... From the fiscal year ended 30 June 2005 (FY2005) to FY2015, Silverlake Axis has seen its revenue and profit jump five- and four-fold respectively. "
"...an investing report was published on 20 August 2015 in which the writer, who “may” be short Silverlake Axis’s shares (when you’re short, you’re betting that the price of a stock will fall), has likened Silverlake Axis to high-profile fraud cases in the past involving software companies like Longtop Financial from China and Satyam Computer Services from India. It’s a serious accusation..."
"...it will be surprising if Silverlake Axis does not take action against the writer and others who may be involved with the report. In a statement filed with bourse operator and regulator Singapore Exchange yesterday, Silverlake Axis mentioned that it’s currently seeking legal advice on the matter."
"...The company also commented in the same filing that it “will be engaging Deloitte Singapore to undertake an independent review of the allegations… referred to in the Report and to provide its finding and conclusions as to their veracity, which [Silverlake Axis] will publish in due course.”
Full Report here https://www.fool.sg/2015/08/26/making-sense-of-the-recent-short-attack-against-silverlake-axis-ltd/